The Deepdive

Quantum Reality Check 2026: What’s Real, What’s Hype, and How AI Is Actually Using Quantum Tech

• Allen & Ida • Season 2 • Episode 18

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A credit card typed at midnight feels routine—until you realize someone may already be saving that encrypted transaction, waiting for a future machine to read it like plain text. We unpack the quantum shift from distant speculation to near‑term reality, explain why “harvest now, decrypt later” is the live threat, and map the urgent path to post‑quantum cryptography. Along the way, we separate myth from mechanics: quantum isn’t a faster laptop, it’s a specialized tool that exposes hidden structure in problems classical computers can’t touch.

We take you inside the promise that actually matters: simulating molecules to accelerate drug discovery, unlocking catalysts like the FeMoCo pathway that could slash the Haber–Bosch energy bill, and optimizing complex systems—global supply chains, urban traffic, and renewable‑heavy grids. In finance, we explore how quantum could sharpen Monte Carlo simulations for real‑time risk, edging closer to portfolios that protect ordinary savers in volatile markets. Then we turn to the physics: decoherence, two‑level system defects, and quasiparticles, and why counterintuitive design choices—like physically larger qubit pads—can extend coherence and push performance forward.

Power without guardrails invites trouble, so we tackle ethics and governance head‑on. Quantum AI can magnify bias and erode privacy by re‑identifying “anonymous” data at speed, shifting the surveillance calculus and forcing a rethink of data minimization, retention, and transparency. Sustainability sits alongside security: these systems demand energy and rare materials, so responsible sourcing, recycling, and low‑carbon operations must be built in from the start. We close with practical steps: inventory your crypto, prioritize long‑lived secrets for PQC, pilot hybrid algorithms, and invest in the convergence skills where quantum meets your industry. Subscribe, share with a colleague who handles security or data strategy, and leave a review with the one upgrade you think can’t wait.

Leave your thoughts in the comments and subscribe for more tech updates and reviews.

Ida:

Have you ever been, you know, just sitting there, maybe late at night, buying something simple online?

Allan:

Happens all the time.

Ida:

Right. Like maybe you use Smart Gadget or, I don't know, socks even, and you type in your credit card details, hit buy.

Allan:

And you just assume it's safe. Yeah. Completely secure.

Ida:

Aaron Powell Exactly. You just assume that encryption well, it's basically unbreakable, right?

Allan:

That assumption, that implicit trust.

Ida:

Yeah.

Allan:

That's precisely what's on shaky ground now because of quantum computing.

Ida:

Aaron Powell Shaky Ground is putting it mildly, maybe.

Allan:

Well, yeah. Some experts are genuinely calling this an extinction level event for today's standard encryption.

Ida:

Aaron Powell Okay, extinction level event. We need to unpack that. Because I think most people hear quantum computing and they think, you know, maybe decades away, science fiction.

Allan:

Aaron Powell That used to be the thinking, yes. But the reason we're talking about this now in late 2025 is that the timeline has uh dramatically shrunk.

Ida:

How much?

Allan:

Significantly. Look at the recent hardware news Google's Willow, Microsoft's Major INA One, even Amazon's Ocelot. These aren't just small steps.

Ida:

They're big leaps.

Allan:

Huge leaps. They signal a real inflection point. Microsoft's own CEO said recently that a meaningful quantum computer is coming in years, not decades.

Ida:

Aaron Powell Wait, years, not decades. So this future problem is well, it's practically knocking at the door. It really is. And just to give you, the listener, a sense of the scale here, Google's Willowchip. It did a calculation in under five minutes. Okay. A calculation that would take the fastest supercomputer we have today. Get this 10 septillion years.

Allan:

Aaron Powell 10 septillion. That's a 10 with what, 25 zeros after it?

Ida:

25 zeros. It's a number bigger than the age of the universe.

Allan:

Right. And that is the kind of computational power we're suddenly dealing with. That's the threat to, well, basically all the security we rely on online. Banking, messages, secrets.

Ida:

Everything. Okay. So let's tackle the immediate worry. People might think, fine, quantum is coming, I'll just upgrade my security later. But that's not the real danger right now, is it?

Allan:

No. The immediate threat is something else. It's happening today. It's called data harvesting. Or maybe a better name is HNDL. Harvest now, decrypt later. Think about it. Bad actors, governments, maybe criminals, corporate spies, they are right now vacuuming up huge amounts of today's encrypted data. Your emails, financial transactions, health records, everything.

Ida:

But they can't read it yet, right? Because of current encryption.

Allan:

Exactly. They can't read it today, but they're storing it. Petabytes of it. They're making a bet.

Ida:

Betting that future quantum computers will just slice through today's encryption.

Allan:

Precisely. Once those powerful quantum machines arrive, all that stored data becomes an open book, instantly decrypted.

Ida:

Okay, that's genuinely chilling. It makes my online sock purchase feel a bit more serious. So remind us quickly, how does today's encryption work? The stuff they're harvesting.

Allan:

Well, the most common kind, like RSA, relies on math being hard, specifically factoring large numbers.

Ida:

Factoring.

Allan:

Yeah. It's super easy for a computer to multiply two massive prime numbers together. You know, primes are numbers only divisible by one in themselves. But trying to take that huge result and figure out the two original primes that made it, that's incredibly difficult for our current computers. It would take them billions of years for the numbers used in encryption. That difficulty is the lock.

Ida:

A mathematical lock. And quantum computing has the key.

Allan:

It does. It's a famous algorithm called Shore's algorithm, developed back in the 90s, actually.

Ida:

So we've known about this key for a while.

Allan:

We've known the theory. Shore's algorithm uses quantum mechanics stuff like interference and superposition in a really clever way. It can essentially find the hidden mathematical rhythm, the period, in the factoring problem.

Ida:

Okay, finding a rhythm, how does that help?

Allan:

Imagine looking for a needle in a ginormous haystack. A classical computer checks one straw at a time. Shore's algorithm lets a quantum computer somehow sense the entire haystack at once and points directly to the needle. Wow. It turns that billions of years problem into something that takes maybe seconds or minutes on a capable quantum computer.

Ida:

So the lock isn't just picked, it's fundamentally broken. Okay, so what's the defense? There must be one.

Allan:

There is. It's called post-quantum cryptography, or PQC. New types of encryption based on different mathematical problems that we think even quantum computers can't solve easily.

Ida:

And this is happening now.

Allan:

Oh yes. MIST, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, has been working on this seriously since 2016. They've already finalized the first few PQC standards. The algorithms exist.

Ida:

So if the new locks are ready, why the panic? Why the HNDL threat? Is it just about cost?

Allan:

Aaron Powell Cost is a factor, sure, but the real nightmare is deployment. Getting these new PQC standards rolled out everywhere.

Ida:

The last mile problem.

Allan:

Exactly. But on a global scale. Think about every website, every server, every phone, every piece of software that uses encryption. They all need to be updated.

Ida:

Aaron Powell That sounds huge. Years of work.

Allan:

Aaron Powell Years and years potentially. And any delay creates a window of vulnerability. That's why you're seeing companies like Google, Apple, Microsoft pushing to shorten the lifespan of current security certificates, those TLS certificates that make websites secure. How short? They're aiming for just 47 days in some cases.

Ida:

Aaron Powell 47 days. Wow. They're basically trying to force everyone to update constantly because they know this quantum threat is coming fast and the HDL data is piling up.

Allan:

That's the urgency. It's a race to replace the locks before the quantum key gets mass-produced. Aaron Powell Okay.

Ida:

So the security threat is real and immediate, but let's pivot slightly. This incredible quantum power. It's not just for breaking things, right? We need it.

Allan:

Absolutely. But maybe not for the reasons people assume. Let's bust a big myth right now.

Ida:

Please do.

Allan:

Quantum computers are not going to be your next super fast gaming laptop. They won't run Windows faster or load websites quicker.

Ida:

Aaron Powell So not a turbo boost for my current tech.

Allan:

Not at all. It's a fundamentally different kind of computing. It's a highly specialized tool, brilliant for certain types of problems where quantum effects like interference can find hidden structures.

Ida:

Problems that our regular computers just choke on.

Allan:

Exactly. Problems they can't solve efficiently, or maybe ever. Think complex simulations and optimization.

Ida:

Aaron Powell Okay, so if it's not making my phone faster, what are the big society-changing applications we should be excited about?

Allan:

Drug discovery and material science are huge ones. Simulating molecules accurately is incredibly hard for classical computers. The complexity explodes.

Ida:

But quantum computers can handle it.

Allan:

They're naturally suited for it. They operate on quantum principles themselves. So designing new medicines, discovering new catalysts for cleaner energy, creating better batteries, stronger lightweight materials, QC could accelerate all of that dramatically.

Ida:

You mentioned catalysts. There's that amazing example about fertilizer.

Allan:

Right, the FOMOCO catalyst. Nature uses this molecule and bacteria to make ammonia for fertilizer at room temperature.

Ida:

And how do we make fertilizer now?

Allan:

We use the Haberbosch process. It works, but it's incredibly energy intensive. It consumes something like 2% of the entire world's energy production.

Ida:

2% just for fertilizer.

Allan:

Just for fertilizer. If QC can help us fully understand and replicate how FOMOCO works, we could potentially create an industrial process that saves a massive chunk of global energy and reduces emissions. That's a game changer.

Ida:

Okay, that's huge. What about optimization? Things like logistics or finance.

Allan:

Another sweet spot for QC. Think about optimizing complex systems with tons of variables. Global shipping routes, managing city traffic flow in real time, making supply chains way more efficient.

Ida:

Less waste, lower costs, fewer emissions.

Allan:

Exactly. And in finance, think about modeling risk. Monte Carlo simulations are used everywhere, but they're computationally heavy.

Ida:

PC could make them faster and more accurate.

Allan:

Much faster, potentially allowing for things like truly hyper-personalized financial planning. Imagine a 401k that constantly adjusts based on incredibly complex real-time market analysis. That could offer much better protection against risk.

Ida:

And you also mentioned energy grids.

Allan:

Yes, vital. Our grids are getting incredibly complex with renewable energy sources like wind and solar coming online, plus the demands of electric vehicles and data centers.

Ida:

It's balancing act.

Allan:

A very complex one. QC could be essential for modeling, predicting, and managing these future smart grids to keep energy reliable and affordable.

Ida:

So amazing potential. But if it's so great, why don't we have these powerful machines everywhere yet? What's the holdup?

Allan:

It boils down to incredibly difficult physics and engineering. The main enemy is something called decoherence.

Ida:

Decoherence sounds bad.

Allan:

It is. It's basically the quantum state kind of dissolving, losing its quantumness because of noise from the environment.

Ida:

Noise, like sound.

Allan:

Not sound, but more like tiny disturbances. Imagine trying to build a really delicate house of cards on a vibrating table, the slightest bump, and it collapses. Quibbits, the building blocks of quantum computers, are unbelievably fragile.

Ida:

And what causes these bumps, this noise in the main type of quibbits people are building, the superconducting ones?

Allan:

Aaron Powell Two main culprits. Yeah. First, tiny defects in the materials themselves, literally at the atomic level. They call them two-level systems or TLSs. Little imperfections. Okay. Second, stray energy particles called quasiparticles or QPs. They're like little bits of energy bouncing around where they shouldn't be messing with the qubit state.

Ida:

Aaron Powell, so they're fighting noise just to keep the quantum calculation running for s how long?

Allan:

We're often talking microseconds or milliseconds. It's an intense battle against physics.

Ida:

Aaron Powell And the research shows something interesting about the physical design of the qubits matters a lot here, right? Something counterintuitive.

Allan:

Yes, this is fascinating. You'd think in computing smaller is always better, right?

Ida:

Yeah.

Allan:

Pack more in.

Ida:

Moore's law, yeah.

Allan:

But with these superconducting quibits, research is showing that the physical size of the qubit components, the pads, actually makes a huge difference to noise.

Ida:

And bigger is better. That seems weird.

Allan:

It does, but the physics bears it out. Quibits with a smaller physical footprint, smaller surface area, are actually more sensitive to noise from both those TLS defects and the quasi-particles.

Ida:

Why would that be?

Allan:

It's complex, but it relates to the density of these noise sources and something called the effective volume. Basically, the noise gets more concentrated in smaller spaces. Research suggests the density of those unwanted quasi-particles is about 2.5 times higher in quibits with small pads. So making the pads physically larger gives the quibbit more stability, a longer coherence time. It shows how much the physical design, down to the micro level, matters.

Ida:

So it's not just about having more quibbits, it's about having good, stable quibits.

Allan:

Quality over quantity, at least for now. Building stable quibbits is the real engineering hurdle.

Ida:

Okay, this power is immense. The challenges are huge. Which brings us to ethics. When do we start thinking about the ethical implications of something this powerful?

Allan:

Right now. Absolutely now. While it's still being designed and built, we can't wait until it's fully mature.

Ida:

Because once you combine this quantum power with AI, you get quantum AI. And that could amplify existing problems.

Allan:

Dramatically. All the concerns we already have about AI bias, fairness, privacy, quantum computing could put them on steroids.

Ida:

So with fairness, we know AI can be biased if trained on bad data.

Allan:

Aaron Powell Right. Now imagine a quantum system trained on flawed data. Its speed and power could lead to discriminatory outcomes much faster and potentially on a much wider scale. A small bias could become a huge problem very quickly.

Ida:

Aaron Powell And privacy. You mentioned HNDL braking encryption, but what about analyzing data that's supposedly anonymous?

Allan:

Aaron Powell That's a huge concern. Quantum AI could potentially re-identify individuals or infer sensitive information from large data sets with incredible speed and efficiency, even data protected by current regulations like GDPR.

Ida:

So the speed itself changes what's possible in terms of surveillance or pattern finding.

Allan:

Absolutely. It changes the whole calculus. We need to rethink data protection entirely in the quantum era. How do we ensure data integrity and control when machines can process it this fast?

Ida:

And then there's sustainability. We talked about QC potentially saving energy with things like FOMOCO.

Allan:

Yes, the potential upside is there.

Ida:

But building and running these things and the whole tech ecosystem around them must consume a lot of energy and resources, too, right?

Allan:

It's a critical trade-off. Quantum computers, especially early ones, are power hungry. Data centers are already a huge energy drain. Plus, manufacturing the specialized components involves rare materials and creates e-waste.

Ida:

So we need to build sustainability in from the start.

Allan:

We have to. Corporate responsibility here is key. We need eco-friendly designs, responsible sourcing, plans for recycling. We can't solve one problem by creating another massive environmental one.

Ida:

Okay, so wrapping this up, it feels like we're standing at a really pivotal moment.

Allan:

We absolutely are.

Ida:

We're in this incredible race. Quantum computing is this giant leap that, yes, threatens our current digital security blanket through things like H and DL.

Allan:

A very real threat.

Ida:

But it's also the same power that might be our best hope for solving some truly massive global challenges in energy, medicine, materials.

Allan:

That's the paradox. Huge risk, huge reward.

Ida:

And the key myth we busted today: quantum computers are not just faster laptops. Don't expect one on your desk running spreadsheets anytime soon.

Allan:

Definitely not. They're specialized machines for specialized, incredibly hard problems that classical computers just can't handle. Think different tool, not faster tool.

Ida:

So for you listening, what's one thing you can do now? It feels like specific tech skills might become outdated fast.

Allan:

Adaptability is key. And understanding where this technology intersects with existing fields. Look at the convergence points.

Ida:

Convergence points.

Allan:

Yeah, where quantum computing meets healthcare or finance or logistics or energy. That's where the real transformation will happen, and where the valuable skills and opportunities will be understanding both the quantum potential and the specific industry's needs.

Ida:

Be the bridge between the quantum world and the real world.

Allan:

Exactly. That's going to be incredibly valuable.

Ida:

And maybe a final thought to leave people with. It comes back to control, doesn't it?

Allan:

It does. The really deep question is about autonomy. As these machines get smarter and faster, thanks to quantum and AI, how much decision making do we hand over?

Ida:

How do we ensure they align with human values?

Allan:

How do we maintain trust? We need to decide, consciously, how much power we give these incredibly potent new tools. That's maybe the most profound challenge of the quantum era ahead.

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Allan

Host
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Ida

Host