The Deepdive
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The Deepdive
Hinged and Unhinged: The Foldable Phone Revolution
Foldable smartphones have evolved from fragile novelties in 2019 to sophisticated devices in 2025, though they remain a niche segment with just 1.6% market penetration despite growing shipments.
• Samsung's market dominance dropping from 45% to 35% as competitors like Huawei (34.3%) gain ground
• Latest models like Samsung Z Fold 7 and Motorola Razr Ultra offer significant improvements in durability and functionality
• Durability concerns largely addressed with Samsung's repair rates dropping from 50% to just 5%
• Battery life remains challenging with most foldables, though Motorola Razr Ultra leads with over 15 hours
• Apple likely entering the market in 2026 with rumors of a crease-free design
• Samsung developing potential trifold device with 9.9-inch screen for late 2025
• AI integration expected to enhance usefulness of split-screen capabilities
• Ultra-slim designs pushing to close the gap with traditional smartphones
As these devices continue to evolve, we'd love to hear your thoughts on whether foldables could eventually replace your traditional phone or even your laptop.
Leave your thoughts in the comments and subscribe for more tech updates and reviews.
Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today, we're really getting into foldable smartphones. Remember when these first showed up Lots of skepticism, right? People asking, is this just like a gimmick? And, honestly, some scary stories back then too. Ok, let's unpack this a bit. We're going to explore how far foldables have actually come, where they stand now in the market, what challenges are still out there and some of the really cool innovations shaping what's next. We've looked at market forecasts, tech reviews, user studies, trying to get you the full picture here.
Speaker 3:It really is fascinating. I mean back in 2019, it felt like this sci-fi dream, but they were also pretty clunky, expensive, a bit fragile, maybe more prototype than you know Daily Driver. But now, 2025, wow, they're sleeker, way smarter and, yeah, much more tempting.
Speaker 1:Let's talk numbers, then, because the market, well, it's definitely evolved. Global shipments are heading towards maybe 19.8 million units this year, 2025, which, okay, sounds like a lot, but here's the thing they're still kind of niche. Market penetration is hovering around what? 1.6%, pretty much the same as 2024. So growth, but maybe slower adoption than some expected.
Speaker 3:Absolutely. It's slower than the initial hype might have suggested and if you look at the bigger picture, it makes sense why companies keep pushing this. Tech is a massive differentiator for brands. It's about premiumization, it sets them apart from companies not in the foldable space and it definitely boosts that brand innovation awareness. Right now it might be less about grabbing huge market share and more about showing off tech leadership.
Speaker 1:Okay and leadership-wise. Samsung's been the name right from the start, but their global share it's projected to actually drop from over 45% last year down to maybe 35% in 2025. And they just launched our new ones the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Z Flip 7, july 9th.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that drop really shows how much hotter the competition is getting for 2025. You've got Huawei projected to grab the second spot globally, around 34.3%. That's huge. And then you see these fast growers honors moving up from 6% to over 9%. Lenovo, which includes Motorola, they're climbing to 5.5%, up to 7.6%. And Xiaomi, with their MX Flip, they're expected to go from 3% to over 5%. Then there's OPPO, vivo and they count for another 8.5% combined. It's well. It's getting crowded More exciting, frankly.
Speaker 1:So, with all these players jumping in, how are they trying to stand out? What's actually new? We've seen some really interesting devices, like the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7. People, samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7. People are calling it a great all-rounder. It's got that bigger 4.1-inch outer screen. The Flex window Feels sturdier too, and it even supports Samsung DeX. You know for that desktop experience, plus new AI stuff like Gemini Live. But then look at the Motorola Razr Ultra, the 2025 version.
Speaker 1:Battery life king Tests show it hitting what? 15 hours and 42 minutes. That's the longest-lasting foldable tested. Big 4700 mAh battery. Titanium hinge Costs around $1,300. And if multitasking is your thing, the OnePlus Open. Okay, it's almost two years old now, but that open canvas feature still fantastic, Running three apps side by side pretty smoothly. And cameras and AI Samsung Z Fold 7 is getting attention there. Super thin design this time in that new 200 megapixel main camera, plus AI tricks optimized for the folding screen, but $2,000, steep. Google's Pixel 9 Pro Fold 2, great AI for photo editing, apparently. And that main screen, the eight inch one, super bright hit over 2,300 nits in tests really vivid.
Speaker 3:Right. So you've got all these advancements, all these specific selling points, but adoption is still kind of measured, which brings up that important question, right, why? Well, the key barriers? They still seem to be. Lingering concerns Things like crease, visibility, durability worries and definitely the high price tags. Plus, for a lot of folks who aren't, you know, hardcore brand loyalists, there's just not a huge incentive yet to switch from a perfectly good regular smartphone. The benefits aren't always crystal clear for daily use.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that durability question. It's like the ghost that haunts foldables, isn't it? We all remember those early days the hinge woes, screens cracking or scratching easily, that visible crease and dust Dust getting inside the mechanism was a real nightmare for some early adopters. Made you think twice for sure.
Speaker 3:Oh, absolutely. But manufacturers, they've definitely been listening and they are seriously toughening up these phones Material-wise. Pretty much everyone's using ultra-thin glass UTG now Much better resistance on that inner screen. Samsung claims their latest Z Fold can take 200,000 folds, which okay if you fold it 100 times a day.
Speaker 1:that's like five years. Pretty good, 200,000, wow.
Speaker 3:And the hinges are getting smarter too. Designs with self-cleaning brushes, like Samsung's new Armor Flex, hinge on the Fold 7, which, by the way, is also thinner and lighter. And you've got zero-gap systems, like on Motorola's Razr, trying to block debris completely and weatherproofing. That's come a long way. Ipx8 ratings are becoming standard. It means they can handle being submerged in water.
Speaker 1:That's a huge jump. And there was that user study on Samsung's Folds right. It showed the newer ones Fold 5 and 6, are way more reliable than the older 3 and 4.
Speaker 3:Yeah, the data there is really quite striking RMA rates, return, merchandise authorization basically sending it back for repair dropped like a stone From nearly 50% for the Fold 4 down to just 5% for the Fold 6.
Speaker 1:That's massive 50% down to 5.
Speaker 3:Okay, and micro cracks. Remember how big a deal those were. They went from almost 40% on the Fold 3 down to just 3.3% on the Fold 6. Basically gone Screen protector peeling too. They used to be a bad sign linked to higher RMAs and cracks, now almost eliminated on the Fold 6. Like 1.6% compared to over 90%. Peeling on the Fold 3 shows that factory protector is crucial and much better now.
Speaker 3:But the study did find something interesting. Most serious issues, like actual cracks and breaks, tend to show up after the first year, peaking beyond 24 months. So yeah, initial reliability is way up, but long term we still need a bit more data as these devices age. Also, if your screen isn't opening totally flat, that could be an early warning sign of internal trouble. The Fold 6 actually showed a slightly higher rate of this flatness issue early on than the Fold 5 did, which is something to keep an eye on. But here's maybe the biggest surprise your usage habits, how often you fold it. Whether you use the inner or outer screen more, according to this study it has no measurable impact on durability zero.
Speaker 1:Okay, so that's good news for users. Don't need to baby it quite as much. So the takeaway on durability seems to be they've definitely shed that fragile reputation. Mostly Much tougher, but maybe still not quite at the level of, you know, toss it in your bag with your keys Tough. Especially that inner screen Still needs some care.
Speaker 3:Exactly Robust, yes. Invincible, no. Especially that softer inner display.
Speaker 1:All right, so durability is much improved. But there's that other challenge, the one that always comes up with bigger screens Battery life. Bigger display needs more power right, but everyone wants slim phones. It's a tough balancing act, stuffing enough battery in there.
Speaker 3:It really is. You have these complex hinge mechanisms taking up space plus all the other components. Now we are seeing advancements Silicon, carbon materials and batteries are helping boost capacity, like OPPO's Find N5, supposedly hitting 5600 milli. That's way up from their earlier 4500 milli Find N. But yeah, getting that bigger capacity without making the phone thick and clunky, that's the dilemma.
Speaker 1:And the latest tests on Samsung's new phones kind of highlight this, don't they? The Galaxy Z Fold 7, same battery size as the Fold 6, 40,400 mAh. And the battery life game pretty small just under 11 hours. Still behind phones like the OnePlus Open or the Pixel 9 Pro Fold.
Speaker 3:Marginal gains. Yeah, the Fold 7, it's not a huge leap from its predecessor.
Speaker 1:The Z Flip 7 did better, though. Bigger battery this time, 4,300 milliamps. It got over 12 hours, which is a decent jump from the Flip 6, but still nowhere near that Motorola Razr Ultra at over 15 hours, or even the standard Razr, which gets nearly 14 hours.
Speaker 3:So Samsung's definitely making efforts. You see the improvement on the Flip 7, especially, but for the Fold 7, the gains are small. And, yeah, they're still playing catch up with some competitors on longevity, and that matters because battery life is consistently one of the top things people look for in any phone, let alone a pricey foldable. It's still a hurdle.
Speaker 1:Okay, so we've tackled durability improvements, the ongoing battery challenge, what's next, what's the future look like and the elephant in the room, or maybe the foldable elephant Apple.
Speaker 3:when are they jumping in? Right the Apple factor. That's expected to be a huge turning point. Trendforce is suggesting Apple's likely targeting the second half of 2026 for their first foldable phone 2026.
Speaker 3:Rumored specs point to maybe a 5.5-inch external screen and a 7.8-inch internal one, and you can bet their entry will significantly boost interest and acceptance, especially at the high end. Expect deep iOS optimization for the folding format, that classic seamless hardware-software integration. But there are even rumors they're aiming for a crease-free inner display, maybe using some laser-drilled metal plate tech and possibly Touch ID on the power button.
Speaker 1:Hmm, typical Apple.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Playing the long game, waiting for the tech to mature, aiming for perfection. Do you think waiting until potentially late 2026 puts them at a disadvantage, though, or is it just smart?
Speaker 3:It's a classic Apple strategy, isn't it? They might miss some early sales, yeah, but they focus on getting the user experience absolutely right, making it robust. Their entry isn't just about selling a new device. It's about validating the category, setting a new standard for how it all works together. They're betting that perfected beats first.
Speaker 1:Makes sense, but other companies aren't waiting around. What else is cooking? Samsung's teasing something pretty wild. Right A trifold yeah that's the latest buzz.
Speaker 3:A potential late 2025 launch, possibly A device that folds twice, opening up to a massive like 9.9 inch screen Almost tablet territory. Initially expected in limited numbers, probably China and Korea first testing the waters for such a radical design.
Speaker 1:A tri-fold. Wow, that could change things.
Speaker 3:And then there's the relentless push across the industry for ultra-slim designs. The goal seems to be closing that final one millimeter gap with regular bar phones, getting foldables down to maybe eight millimeter thick when closed. How?
Speaker 1:are they even doing that?
Speaker 3:Incredible engineering, reducing hinge parts from hundreds down to less than 100. Using advanced materials like titanium alloys, it's all about making them feel just as sleek and portable as a traditional phone, even with the hinge.
Speaker 1:And then there's AI, generative AI, gen AI. How does that fit into the foldable picture?
Speaker 3:Oh, I think Gen AI is going to be huge for foldables. It could really enhance the use case. Think about smarter cross-device experiences, your foldable working seamlessly with your other gear and enabling new kinds of interactions on those split screens, like maybe getting real-time photo previews on the cover screen while you shoot with the main camera unfolded, or using AI tools collaboratively side-by-side on that big inner display an AI assistant that truly understands the context of how you're using the foldable screen.
Speaker 1:Okay. So wrapping this deep dive up? Foldable phones definitely not a novelty anymore, not just a gimmick. They've made huge strides Design, durability, features. It's impressive. Lots of players now pushing hard, even teasing crazy new forms like trifolds. Challenges remain sure Battery life on some models, the price. But with Apple likely joining soon the push for slimness and Gen AI integration, the future looks really dynamic, transformative maybe.
Speaker 3:Which really leads to the big question for you, the listener, doesn't it? As these foldables get thinner, tougher, smarter, with AI, could they eventually replace your traditional phone, maybe even your laptop? Or are they carving out a whole new category, something that changes how we interact with tech in ways we're only just starting to grasp?
Speaker 1:It's definitely an exciting space to watch. Think about those tradeoffs, the possibilities. What could these bendable screens mean for how you use technology day to day? Lots to consider.
